India’s intent on climate may not satisfy West

The 15th United Nations conference on climate change opened in Copenhagen on Monday amid apprehensions that the much-hyped meet may change the framework of future climate negotiations to the disadvantage of developing countries like India.

At the crux of the battle to be fought over the next 12 days is the fate of the Kyoto Protocol and the different sets of obligations it creates for carbon emission reduction by developed and developing countries. Till they were spooked by the rapid growth of emerging economies like China, India, Brazil and South Africa, the West readily took on internationally binding targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The costs were high and growth rates slower but they could not quarrel with the principles of equity and historical responsibility. The developing countries were left free to do the best given limited resources.

But not any more. Today, with China poised to become the world’s number one economy and countries like India and Brazil threatening to catch up fast, the West is insisting that they too must pay the price for development and take on emission cuts.

By announcing voluntary domestic targets for slowing down carbon emissions by the year 2020, countries like India and China have demonstrated their willingness to be responsible members of the international community. But the concern is that pressure from the West may not stop here; the next step will be to impose legally binding cuts. This is particularly worrying for a country like India which has a long way to go to catch up with even China.

Although there has been much confusion over the government’s negotiating stand for Copenhagen and environment minister Jairam Ramesh’s flip-flops have generated plenty of domestic heat (even on Monday, there was an opposition walkout in the Rajya Sabha), there are a few red lines that India has drawn for itself.

One, it will not accept legally binding international emission targets. Two, it will oppose western efforts to set a peaking year for emissions, which by definition is the date by which India expects its GDP to reach a projected target. Three, it will not allow international verification, scrutiny or review of any domestic emission reduction action that is not supported by international finance or technology.

These are the bottomlines. But the devil really is in the detail and it’s the fine print in the final document that is likely to generate fireworks as the developed and developing countries lock horns over an issue that will determine their growth trajectory in the coming decades. By now, it is obvious that the Copenhagen meet will not result in an international climate treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012. However, the political agreement is as critical as a treaty because it will lay down the framework for future negotiations towards a new treaty.

For India and other developing countries, it is essential that the document maintains the difference enshrined in the Kyoto Protocol between them and the developed countries.

Consequently, Indian negotiators will insist on two separate schedules.

They will also fight to include in the document the basic tenets of climate change negotiations so far, which are the principles of per capita emission rates, equity and historical responsibility.

Thirdly, developing nations want extensive financial commitments from the west to help them access green technology like clean coal, coal gasification, solar power unit, etc.

These are expensive and can be bought only by paying a commercial license fee. So far, the west has offered to set up a fund of US $100 billion. This is just a drop in the ocean, according to climate change experts here.

The battlelines have been drawn but with most major world leaders slated to show up at the close of the meet, there will have to be an agreement. The question is whether the developing world, led by the BASIC countries of Brazil, South Africa, India and China, can withstand pressures from nations that are gripped by concerns about their decline.