Rao weighs India’s options

With the Taliban determined to oppose Indian presence in Afghanistan, Indian needs to weigh its options there. Just why foreign secretary Nirupama Rao is in Kabul, to take stock of the situation following the terror strike on the Indian embassy.

As US president Barack Obama and his team mull the next steps to take in Afghanistan, the Taliban want to assert that they cannot be ignored in any future political set-up.

Reports from Washington suggest Obama is not ruling out talks and a role for the Taliban. There is a school of thought there that it is not the Taliban but the al-Qaida that is a threat to the US. Not everybody agrees though. 

Kenneth Roth, executive director of Human Rights Watch, believes the Taliban are ideologically close to the al-Qaida, had hosted Osama bin Laden and even refused to hand him over to America. Even if Obama’s formula works for the US, it will be disastrous for India. So far Delhi has opposed talks with the Taliban and denied there is a “good and bad” Taliban.

President Hamid Karzai has been making overtures to the moderate Taliban, but there is no indication Mullah Omar is listening. The Taliban, originally nurtured and supported by Pakistan, were always anti-India. Thursday’s attack suggests Taliban and its backers will challenge Delhi’s increasing influence.

The US will finalise its Afghanistan policy by month-end. If the US and Kabul decide to engage the Taliban, India will be isolated. Pakistan has been fretting ever since India made a comeback in Afghanistan after the Taliban’s downfall. If the Taliban is accommodated, Pakistan will ensure India’s role is minimised again.

Pakistan is also telling the US military that India’s consulates in Mazar-e-Sharif, Jalalabad, Kandahar and Herat are used only to stir trouble in Balochistan. Dependent as it is on the Pakistan military, the US listens to it.

The stakes are too high for India to make an about-turn. But “We don’t need to toe the US line,’’ an official said. The ordinary Afghan appreciates Delhi’s reconstruction efforts there. Unless the Taliban calls the shots, India will stay on. “But we need to have a second option ready,” he said.