Relevance to the US gives Pak advantage in talks with India

The scales have tipped in favour of Pakistan in the diplomatic stand-off between the two Asian rivals following the Mumbai terror strikes fourteen months ago. Soon after 26/11, Islamabad was in the doghouse and under intense international pressure to clean up its act. Pakistan has, however, extricated itself from a difficult situation, when it was regarded as a major headache for the international community, to becoming a major stake-holder in Afghanistan and in ensuring stability in the region.

It has helped the US and Nato forces depend on the Pakistan military to win the war against al-Qaeda and Taliban. India has contributed in a small measure too. If Manmohan Singh had his way and engagement with Pakistan began soon after the meeting with his counterpart Yousaf Raza Gilani at Sharm-el Sheikh last year, then New Delhi would have been seen as talking from a position of strength. But the public was not in a mood to humour Pakistan’s civilian government.

“Pakistan is riding the luck of the devil. In fact, Afghanistan has helped Pakistan time and again to become relevant to the international community,” says former foreign secretary Salman Haider. The change in tack by the US and Nato forces, articulated in both Istanbul and the London conference, has given Pakistan the opportunity they need to once again become an important political player.

Everyone knows the Afghan Taliban is the creation of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Now when there is talk of reaching out to these elements, the ISI and the army can both be useful.
After the capture of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar in a joint Pakistan-US operation in Karachi 10 days ago, Islamabad’s stocks went up even higher with the Americans. After all, a top Afghan Taliban — in fact, the commander believed to be extremely close to the one-eyed Taliban leader Mullah Omar — was nabbed after the Pakistani intelligence co-operated actively.

Baradar’s arrest has revived the ISI’s traditional Pentagon and CIA links and will come to the fore more and more in the next few months.

In fact, Richard Holbrooke, the US special envoy for Af-Pak, arrived in Islamabad on Thursday to thank Pakistan for this big catch.
Under these circumstances, the fresh bid by New Delhi to initiate foreign secretary-level talks is being seen as a concession by India to US pressure. “Yes, we need to talk to Pakistan certainly but this kind of abrupt turn-around by the government does not inspire confidence,” says KC Singh, former secretary in the ministry of external affairs.

Re-launching the dialogue with Pakistan the second time around has been done clumsily. This also has to do with the fact that there is more than one opinion in the establishment about the need to talk.

“This is typical South Asian style of functioning… there is some confusion, some ambiguity and no coherent policy being articulated,” says Naresh Chandra, former envoy to Washington and a seasoned bureaucrat.

Chandra said that India and Pakistan have already begun taking potshots at each other through their respective media.

Chandra believes there is neither trust nor understanding between the two governments. Both are merely playing to their domestic audiences. India is insisting that the talks will be only on terror while Pakistan is constantly raking up the Kashmir issue.

The two foreign secretaries will have a tight brief and little opportunity to manouevre from their fixed positions. Much of the time will be taken up in drafting a joint statement which will reflect the domestic concerns of both countries.

The talks now will be a limited exercise by both countries to tell the international community that they are both mature neighbours and willing to engage.