Failed no-confidence motion against Imran Khan: Analysing the four pillars of power at play in Pakistan

History repeats itself and Pakistan is no exception. Till date, no prime minister of Pakistan has been able to complete their tenure in the office. So was to be the case with Imran Khan, who dissolved the parliament without going for vote pertaining to no-confidence motion tabled by opposition parties.

Today’s development in our western neighbour was not an unexpected outcome. It was very much expected in a country where rules are broken, twisted and misused by the pillars of power to maintain their control. Constitutional crises like this are not new and they are repeated with each term of the Pakistan National Assembly

Imran Khan’s move has put the country on the verge of an uncertain future and the biggest question is “What will happen now?”. The way Prime Minister of a country used an unreliable correspondence from its own diplomat, terming it as a conspiracy to topple his government by a foreign force, is extremely amusing. Moreover, the letter is not even presented before any authority to prove its authenticity, and based on a verbal statement of the prime minister, the speaker of the house termed it as violation of Article 5 of their Constitution and declared the no-confidence motion as illegal. There cannot be a bigger joke than this. Although the opposition is taking the matter to the Supreme Court of Pakistan, knowing the judiciary and history of Pakistan, one can be sure that nothing is going to happen at the apex court of the country.

With this, we can directly predict the next course of action. As the country will move to fresh elections which are going to be announced in the next 90 days, Imran Khan is going to get an additional lease of few months to play with power till a new government is selected in Pakistan and the cycle will go on. Yes, we are using the word ‘selected’ because in Pakistan, governments are not elected, they are selected by the Pakistan Army.

As the election process is going to start, Imran Khan will use his clout to create fake narratives against opposition leaders which will be supported by Pakistan Army. Then, Pakistan Army will once again influence the elections (the way they have been doing for last seven decades) to elect someone of their choice in the seat of power. Certainly, that person will not be Imran Khan since he has lost his credibility in front of the nation. And after that, this selected person will start blaming all the previous governments for the current state of Pakistan and himself will contribute generously to the debts of the country. While the common person of Pakistan will continue to suffer, large business empires owned by ‘Fauji’ Generals will continue to mint money.

While we will debate about the political situation, it is pertinent to understand the four pillars of power in Pakistan. These pillars hold the entire power set up in Pakistan.

Pakistan Army: The first and foremost pillar of power in Pakistan is its Army and the most powerful person in the country is the Army Chief, whose powers are more than the President, Prime Minister, and Chief Justice of Pakistan. Interestingly, there is no one in the country to challenge his power and anyone even thinking of doing so, disappears from the screen. Pakistani Inter Services Intelligence has a full-fledged department for orchestrating and managing political situation in the country. Pakistan Army looks for a favourable leader who can dance to its tunes and supports him. If there is anyone who talks of democracy, they get a different treatment. We have example of many leaders including ex-Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto who were killed mercilessly and we know well that it was the Pakistan Army that rigged the elections in 2018, bringing Imran Khan to power and they will do the same once again in the coming elections too.

Fanatic Religious Organisations: Pakistan can be called as mother of all terror organisations. Be it Al-Qaeda, be it Islamic State or any other brutal terror groups, we will find their roots in Pakistan. These terror groups are formed under the support of various Islamic Religious organisations and their entire funding happens through the vast network of these Islamic Organisations. Over last five decades, the influence of religious groups in the power corridors of the country has increased manifolds. So much that they became the second most powerful pillar of Pakistan’s government. They have the power to bring the country to its knees anytime they want and hence political leaders are forced to dance to their tunes.

Bureaucracy: In Pakistan, the bureaucracy may not be visible much but they are very strong. They understand it well that Pakistan is a country of political instability and, hence, they should be neutral to their politically-elected governments. However, their close relations with the Pakistan Army are not a secret. Although a significant number of people sitting in senior bureaucratic positions are Pakistan Army Officers, yet the civil system works hand-in-hand with Pakistan Army. Even if it is conducting elections, census, investigation or any other aid to civil authority, Pakistan Army is made part of it and bureaucracy keep enjoying the fruits of power. Bureaucrats stay on plum positions by keeping their military masters happy.

Retired Officers of Pakistan Army: Unlike regular Pakistan Army who are in power and can influence the decisions of the government, there is the fourth pillar of power in Pakistan and that is the Retired Officers’ force. It is a bitter truth that more than 60% of Pakistan’s economy is being run by the industries owned or run by these retired officers. They are everywhere from manufacturing to service sector, information technology to aviation, consumer goods to travel and tourism and from media to agriculture. You count top 10 industries and top 10 Public Sector Undertakings of Pakistan; retired officers will always be there. All the governmental decisions pertaining to economy and industry of the country cannot be taken without their consent and that is a bitter truth.

As we saw, political parties, political leadership, social organisations, media and journalism or even Judiciary do not figure among the top 4 pillars of power in Pakistan. In a country where judges are murdered in cold blood, journalists are made to disappear forever and political leaders are assassinated, one can understand the future.

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Last few months of political turmoil in Pakistan indicated that the opposition is getting united against Imran Khan and they also achieved majority to overthrow the government. Had no-confidence motion sailed through the National Assembly of Pakistan, an opposition government led by PML-N would have been in power but the way opposition leaders like Maryam Nawaz and Bilawal Bhutto were vocal against Pakistan Army and General Bajwa, things were not so smooth and could pose some indirect threat to Pakistan Army and its interests. Both Bajwa and ISI Chief never wanted that and hence this entire episode was orchestrated over several meetings they had with Imran Khan

The author is a veteran from Armed Forces. He is a known Defence Strategist with keen interests in international affairs, maritime security, terrorism and internal security.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own and do not reflect those of DNA.)