Going gets tough for Hillary Clinton

WASHINGTON: As the one-time frontrunner for the Democratic party nomination Hillary Clinton fumbles through the primaries, there are clear indications that the showdown she hoped to have with dark horse Barack Obama at the Denver Convention in August may turn out to be a damp squib.

At the end of Tuesday night's thrashing in the Potomac primaries (Virginia, Washington DC, Maryland), one tally had Illinois Senator Obama at 1,253 delegates while Clinton had 1,211.

But the idea that a fractured convention could take place in Denver with the 796 so-called 'Super Delegates' making their choices in smoke-filled back rooms of the convention hall is not likely to materialise due to the kind of furore the idea has unleashed, analysts said.

The argument has been that if candidates have a majority of the delegates, only that should matter and not the appointed and annointed super delegates.

Super delegates are not selected through primaries or caucuses but are seated automatically based in their status as current or former office holders and party officials. They are free to support any candidate.

Clinton's promise to the voters of Florida and Michigan that she will fight on the convention floor to have their voices heard has met with some blunt criticism especially from the African-American leader Al Sharpton.

Michigan and Florida moved up their dates of the primaries and the Democratic National Committee refused to recognise it, and in the process making it known that the delegates chosen there will not be seated at the convention hall.

And Obama supporters have made it clear that they abided by the rules and the candidate did not participate in the primaries of the two states. That being the case Senator Obama should not be penalised, they said.
   
"I firmly believe that changing the rules now and seating delegates from Florida and Michigan at this point would not only violate the Democratic party's rules of fairness but also would be a grave injustice," Sharpton has written to the Chairman of the DNC, Howard Dean.

But there are other serious signs of trouble along Clinton's way over and beyond the shake up of her campaign organisation. In fact, a big blow comes by way of reports that an aide to former president Bill Clinton has pledged his support to Obama.

David Wilhelm was a key person in the 1992 campaign of Bill Clinton, but has now switched sides saying he believed that Obama can build a coalition of Democrats, Independents and Republicans needed to win the election on November 4.

Currently all attention is on March 4 when the big ticket states of Ohio and Texas head to the polls and where Clinton has to win convincingly if she is to be a factor at all. And the New York Senator is finding to her dismay that Obama has made rapid inroads into her vote bank.

And hence Clinton's hope of holding to the Hispanic vote in Texas or the conservative White vote in Ohio may not be appropriate to go by. Further, the complicated system of delegate selection in Texas -- a mixture of primaries and caucuses -- hurts her agenda, analysts said.