Musharraf wins legal battle but future still uncertain: analysts

ISLAMABAD: Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has won a key battle in his quest for re-election, but riots at the weekend show that the war over his political future is far from over, analysts said.   

The Supreme Court handed Pakistan's opposition a potentially knock-out blow on Friday when it dismissed petitions seeking to disqualify Musharraf, a vital US anti-terror ally, from an October 6 presidential vote.   

The verdict was the first good news in months for the one-time commando -- who is battling slumping popularity and a wave of Islamist violence -- and removed the biggest hurdle to him securing another five-year term.   

But bloody clashes between lawyers and baton-wielding riot police after the election commission approved his nomination papers on Saturday appeared to reinvigorate the protest movement against him.   

The president must also deal with a vow by opposition MPs to resign en masse this week, a move that would not derail his expected victory but would deprive it of some legitimacy amid calls from Washington for fair elections.   

The poll is to be conducted by the national and provincial parliaments.   

"The violence on Saturday shows that the confrontation is to going to be ugly and divisive," Nasim Zehra, an analyst and columnist for English-language daily The News International, told.   

The government's use of "sheer mindless brutal force" against the demonstrators in Islamabad and other cities would further polarise the country, she added.   

"The government feel they need to ensure a smooth path to the presidential election at all cost -- and by beating lawyers they have shown the costs they are willing to incur," Zehra said.   

The Supreme Court ruling on Friday did at least appear to have lessened the likelihood of Musharraf declaring martial law, a step he considered in August before relenting under US pressure.   

Nuclear-armed Pakistan, especially the military, has faced a suicide bombing backlash since government troops in July stormed the Red Mosque in Islamabad, which had links to Al-Qaeda and the Taliban.   

Musharraf has promised to quit the army before November 15 if he wins the vote this Saturday, but this week officials indicated that if his re-election was blocked he could take other measures.   

In fact his legal victory came at a time when the opposition appeared stunned by a recent crackdown, as well as Musharraf's quick-fire deportation on September 10 of ex-premier Nawaz Sharif, the man he ousted in a 1999 coup.   

Mass rallies that rocked the country in April and May after Musharraf suspended chief justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry had meanwhile sputtered out after Chaudhry's reinstatement.   

But analysts said more trouble was certain to come.   

"The Supreme Court ruling is the first battle that Musharraf has won but the war is not yet over," said Najam Sethi, editor of the English-language Daily Times newspaper.   

The next battle would be when the opposition and the lawyers lodge new legal challenges to the acceptance of the nomination papers in coming days, Sethi said.   

Former premier Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party said Sunday it would be among those lodging an appeal -- making a US-backed proposal for power-sharing between Bhutto and Musharraf seem further away than ever.   

Bhutto has vowed to return to Pakistan on October 18 from self-exile on corruption charges.   

The legal fraternity and journalists unions have also vowed more rallies and called for a nationwide strike following Saturday's violence.   

Analyst Hasan Askari said the Supreme Court ruling had boosted the president as he pursues his election agenda but warned that the row over his military-civilian role was not over.   

"The judgement has caused a major disappointment in civil society and they are going to challenge Musharraf now, most probably by street agitation," said Askari, former head of political science at Lahore's Punjab University.   

"The controversies surrounding the presidential elections will not end."