Pakistan's poor, Musharraf reeling under wheat crisis

ISLAMABAD: Many observers had predicted that the assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto last month would have a lasting impact on Pakistani politics, but the tragedy has been overshadowed, at least partly, by a serious nationwide shortage of wheat.

"Benazir Bhutto was a great leader, and I am mourning her death, but what is important for me right now is to get the wheat flour that keeps me and my seven family members alive," said housewife Yasmin Bibi, 50.

Like millions of low-income citizens across the country, Bibi has been forced to queue for several hours every few days outside a state-run grocery store in the garrison city of Rawalpindi that provides cheap flour.

Bhutto died in a gun and suicide bombing attack after a political rally Dec 27, sparking three days of riots. Embattled President Pervez Musharraf has spent the ensuing weeks denying that rogue elements of his security services killed Bhutto and that parliamentary elections, rescheduled for Feb 18 in the wake of Bhutto's assassination, would be held on time.

Now Musharraf has even more explaining to do. His government has been accused of miscalculating wheat harvest estimates, causing shortages that doubled the price of wheat flour from 15 to 30 rupees ($0.24 to $0.48) per kg in less than a week.

The sudden price spike has aggravated the suffering of millions of families whose daily income is only around 100 rupees, especially because roti, a round, flat bread made of wheat flour, is part of every meal.

Thousands of people took to the streets in several cities and towns across the country in protest, and commentators have warned that such demonstrations could increase if the wheat crisis is not overcome quickly.

"We always hear the government claiming that the country is making huge economic progress. Where is that economic progress?" carpenter Amjad Hussain asked. "If there is, only the riches have benefited from it. For us, there is only starvation. This man [Musharraf] has even snatched roti from us."

Government officials have blamed high international wheat prices, hoarding by local traders and smuggling to Afghanistan, which is also in the grip of a wheat shortage. But experts said the responsibility lies with the government, whose estimates about the 2007 wheat crop were hugely flawed.

"Pakistan produces 90 percent of its wheat demand," economist Qaisar Bengali said. "High international prices could only have an effect on 10 percent of our 23 million tonnes of consumption. Mismanagement on the part of the government is the sole reason for this shortage."

In early 2007, the government allowed the export of 1.6 million tonnes of wheat, saying Pakistan was going to have a surplus crop. However, it realized only a few months later that the wheat crop would be no more than the usually intake of around 20 million tonnes.

By then, there were indications that a shortage was eminent and traders began holding onto their stocks, Bengali said.

In the wake of Bhutto's assassination and the continuation of political violence, including a suicide bombing Thursday that killed 23 people, a wheat flour crisis was the last thing Musharraf and his political backers wanted only a few weeks before the polls.

"The shortage can multiply the public's resentment of Bhutto's murder," political analyst Hassan Askari Rizvi said. "If the situation deteriorates further, wheat flour could play a decisive role on election day."

If Musharraf's government does not handle the crisis properly, it could be the final blow for the president, whose popularity is already at its lowest level since he seized power in a bloodless coup in 1999, Rizvi said.