'Political stability in Pak depends on credibility of polls'

WASHINGTON: Political stability in Pakistan and its efforts to combat terrorism hinges on the integrity and credibility of the upcoming polls, a top South Asia scholar has said while cautioning that any direct meddling by the US in the election could "backfire".
  
"A strong showing by the mainstream secular parties would demonstrate that the vast majority of Pakistanis do not support the extremist Islamic agenda, which could, in turn, strengthen the public mandate of any future prime minister acting to combat extremism and terrorism," Lisa Curtis of the conservative Think Tank The Heritage Foundation has said.
  
"Elections alone will not solve all of Pakistan's problems. Pakistan suffers from decayed democratic institutions and a feudal mindset that can only be addressed through consistent commitment to education and civil society development," she said in an analysis.
  
Curtis said anti-Americanism was rampant in Pakistan and "any direct US meddling in the election could backfire".

"Given the divided nature of the current Pakistani political scene and high levels of anti-Americanism, Washington should not take a position favoring one party or leader over another.
   
"The US must handle the current political transition in Pakistan in a way that preserves its long-term relationship with this pivotal nuclear-armed Muslim country of 165 million.
    
She said the long-term, broad relationship between the US and Pakistan has served as the backdrop to Pakistan's cooperation in the war on terrorism.

"In terms of US interests in war on terrorism issues, Nawaz Sharif's flirtations with establishing Shariah law certainly make him more of a wild card than Benazir Bhutto, who has stated on numerous occasions that she would prioritise efforts to defeat Taliban and al-Qaeda forces that she says are threatening stability in Pakistan," Curtis said.
   
She said many people in India were skeptical of Bhutto as during her prime ministership, she tried to highlight the Kashmir issue at international fora and avoided substantive bilateral discussions on it.
   
"On the issue of relations with India, the picture also is mixed. Many Indians are skeptical of Bhutto and whether she would remain committed to peace efforts with New Delhi, given her past record of seeking to highlight Kashmir at international fora and avoiding any substantive bilateral discussions on the conflict when she was prime minister in the mid-1990s," Curtis said.
   
"For his part, Nawaz Sharif pursued a historic peace process with former Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee in 1999 that was undermined by a military operation led by then-Chief of Army Staff Musharraf.
   
"Friction between the two leaders over the Kargil operation and Sharif's decision to call back Pakistani troops from the border eventually led to Sharif's ouster by Musharraf in October 1999" she said.
   
Curtis said helping ensure a free and fair election in Pakistan should be the core of the US approach.
   
"The Bush Administration should use the opportunity presented by Musharraf's political accommodations to move beyond a policy focused on personalities," she said.
   
She said elections in Pakistan must be held in a free and fair environment.

"To be credible, the elections must be held in an environment where the 1973 constitution has been reinstated, politicians are free to campaign, the media is free to report, and all activists, lawyers, and party workers are freed from detention" Curtis said.
   
She said Washington has not been served well in Pakistan by its overly close association with President Musharraf.
   
"Although Musharraf has been a strong ally in the fight against terrorism since 9/11, it is likely that any Pakistani leader would have made the same critical decision to break ties to the Taliban and support the US invasion of Afghanistan" Curtis said in an analysis.

Curtis said democracy offers the best chance to overcome the forces of extremism and empower those who support a path of political moderation and economic development.
   
The analyst said the US should avoid punitive measures against Islamabad as it could harm American interests.
   
"The US should avoid precipitous, punitive measures, such as cutting military or economic assistance. Washington should be mindful of the impact of the 1990 aid cut-off in Pakistan and how that still causes many Pakistanis to believe that the US is a fickle partner," she said.
  
"Cutting US assistance would embolden al-Qaeda terrorists and jeopardize future relations with Pakistan" Curtis said.