Saudi needs younger faces to avoid gerontocracy

Ageing Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdul-Aziz needs to bring more fresh blood into his government to help dispel the image of gerontocracy and temper intense rivalry inside the ruling family.

Political stability in the monarchy is of global concern. The Gulf Arab state controls more than a fifth of the world's crude reserves, is a lynchpin of US policy in the region, a major holder of dollar assets and home to the biggest Arab bourse.

Changes at the top usually do not alter Saudi OPEC policy but might affect reforms started by King Abdullah, who is around 86, to ease the grip of clerics on society and attract investors to help create jobs for the indigenous population of 18 million.

Diplomats and analysts say his successors might not agree fully with some of these broad policy goals.

Many royal figures are in their 70s or 80s in a country without an elected parliament or political parties and where clerics of an austere branch of Sunni Islam control courts. Many technocrats who help implement reforms are also old.

Over the past two years Abdullah has appointed technocrats at some ministries, the central bank or state oil industry to support his reforms but last month''s death of the 70-year-old labour minister was a reminder that fresh blood is needed.

Sparking further concern, Riyadh governor Prince Salman, a key member of the ruling Al Saud family, underwent spine surgery in the US, the royal court said in August.

The news came as surprise to diplomats because at around 74 years old Salman - whose picture is an almost daily presence in Saudi papers - is one of the senior younger princes seen to have ambition for the top positions.

So far succession has been restricted to sons of the modern state's founder Abdul-Aziz Ibn Saud. Only around 20 are still alive, some of them in bad health, diplomats and analysts say.

To broaden the pool the ruling family would need to open the floor to the 600-900 grandsons, many of whom hold posts in the government, economy or media. But this brings the danger of  intensifying rivalry within Al Saud, said Simon Henderson, author of several studies on Saudi succession.

"There is no indication that this will happen now. The sons still want to become king and also leave their sons something," said Henderson of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

To regulate succession Abdullah has set up an "Allegiance Council" but its exact mandate and power are unclear.

Diplomats say succession will go at least one more time to a son of Ibn Saud, with powerful interior minister Prince Nayef, around 76, standing the best chance after being promoted to second deputy prime minister during Crown Prince Sultan's long absence due to illness last year.

"This will give them more time to find a consensus and come up with a mechanism on how to involve grandsons of all major branches," said a Western diplomat.

Liberals fear for the reforms if Nayef, one of the most conservative princes, took over but political analyst Theodore Karasik argues there are others in the race such as intelligence chief Prince Mugrin, a youngster among royals at around 67.

The ruling family has a history of finding a consensus with clerics who helped found the kingdom in 1932 but diplomats say rivalry among princes has been intense since Crown Prince Sultan went abroad for medical treatment.

The kingdom said Sultan, thought to be in his mid-80, was cured. Diplomats said he was treated for cancer.

Officials say Sultan is working normally, with state media often publishing healthy-looking pictures of him, but diplomats say he has been less in public since his return in December.

Some of the Sultan's duties appear to have been taken up unofficially by other princes for the time being, diplomats and analysts say.

Sultan's son Khaled, around 61, who is assistant defence minister, has risen to prominence since a border war with Shi'ite rebels in Yemen last year and diplomats say he is a candidate for the top defence job held by his father since 1963.

Prince Nayef and his son Mohammed bin Nayef, around 51, the counter-terrorism chief who survived an al Qaeda assassination attempt last year, have also been more involved in dealing with Yemen, a file which had been in Sultan's hands for decades.

Abdullah meanwhile has promoted his son Mut'ib, around 57, as deputy commander of the National Guard.

Another royal to watch is reformist Mecca governor Khaled al-Faisal, son of the late king Faisal and brother of veteran foreign minister Saud al-Faisal, diplomats say.

But even if sons of Sultan, Nayef, Abdullah and others have become more prominent they still need their ageing fathers to stay in office to promote and protect them, argued Henderson.

To pursue reforms Abdullah has brought in new technocrats, most notably the first woman as deputy education minister.

"Although foreign, finance, and the oil ministries have not changed hands recently, they will likely be next due to health issues and necessary change," said Karasik.

Saud al-Faisal, who took office in 1975, could retire due to ill health but royals have yet to agree on a successor, diplomats say. He also underwent spine surgery in 2009.

Another veteran, 75-year-old oil minister Ali al-Naimi, who assumed the post in 1995, is seen as hard to replace.

Analysts say the main credible younger candidate would be Khalid al-Falih, head of state oil giant Saudi Aramco. He assumed that post only last year. Another possible contender could be Naimi's deputy Abdel Aziz bin Salman, the son of Prince Salman, who has been at the ministry for over 15 years.