Will Pezeshkian’s Pragmatism Prevail on Iran N-Trajectory?

The election of a lesser-known reformist as Iran’s new president could keep the possibility of diplomatic talks about the country’s nuclear programme open, particularly if the winner of the US presidential election in November decides to resume negotiations. Masoud Pezeshkian, a 69-year-old heart surgeon and former health minister, won 53% of the votes in a runoff election on Friday. He will replace Ebrahim Raisi, the ultra-conservative former president who died in a helicopter crash in May. Pezeshkian is currently a member of Parliament.

Pezeshkian won against Saeed Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator who is firmly against engaging with Western countries. Jalili’s critics were concerned that he would bring about strict, Taliban-like rules in society. Pezeshkian is considered a moderate within Iran’s Shi’ite leadership and has promised to relax social restrictions, including the need for women to wear a hijab.

During the short campaign, Pezeshkian stated that he would directly negotiate with the United States to remove the sanctions that have severely impacted Iran’s economy. In a speech on Saturday (July 6), Pezeshkian reportedly said he was there to seek lasting peace, stability and cooperation in the region, along with dialogue and constructive interaction with the world.

His campaign promise to engage more with other countries will be tested in a system where the Parliament is controlled by hardliners and supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has the final say on all state matters.

Ali Vaez, the Iran project director for the International Crisis Group, told Al-Monitor media house that the fact that Iran’s leadership allowed a reformist candidate to win for the first time since 2001 indicated they recognized a need for some changes. Vaez mentioned that there was now more political willingness in Tehran to reach an understanding with the West, which could bring some economic relief.

Pezeshkian has advocated for reviving the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers, which set strict limits on Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for lifting international sanctions. Since former President Donald Trump withdrew the US from the nuclear deal in 2018 and reimposed tough sanctions on Iran’s oil industry and financial sector, Iran has gradually expanded its nuclear programme. The US now estimates that Tehran’s breakout period—the time it would take to gather enough material for one nuclear bomb, if it decided to—has shortened from one year to just ‘weeks or less’.

On Monday (July 8), State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller, upon being asked about the possibility of renewed nuclear diplomacy under Pezeshkian, said they would first let him take office. Miller further said that diplomacy was the best way to find a lasting solution to Iran’s nuclear programme. However, they were still far from any meaningful diplomatic resolution at the moment because of Iran’s overall escalation.

Tensions with the West have been high because Iran has supplied armed drones to Russia, which have fuelled the war in Ukraine. Shortly after his victory, Pezeshkian called Putin to assure him of Tehran’s support for Moscow. The president-elect indicated that Iran’s support for Middle East proxy groups would continue unchanged. In a letter to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Monday (July 8), he wrote that “support for resistance groups will continue vigorously”.

Iran-aligned groups in Syria and Iraq have reduced their attacks on US forces, but Hezbollah in Lebanon continues to exchange fire with Israel. Meanwhile, Houthi rebels in Yemen have been attacking maritime trade in the Red Sea and nearby waters for several months. Over the past year, senior US officials have held several rounds of indirect talks with Iranian officials in Oman to try to reduce tensions.

Vali Nasr, a professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University, told the media that sanctions-hit Iran still had reasons to continue talks with the US. Nasr also said that Pezeshkian’s main goal was to find ways to engage with the West. The reality was that the supreme leader had been open to serious diplomatic efforts, which was why he had allowed the Raisi government to participate in talks in Vienna. President Joe Biden had promised to restore the broken nuclear agreement when he took office. After more than a year of indirect talks in Vienna, a deal seemed close.

The Iranians then made demands that the Biden Administration could not accept, including a guarantee that future US presidents would not abandon the nuclear deal. By November 2022, Biden declared the deal dead. The following year, Iran released five Americans in a prisoner exchange, allowing Tehran limited access to $6 billion in frozen funds. However, those funds were restricted again after October 7.

Analysts say Pezeshkian is likely to fill his foreign policy team with experienced diplomats who worked with the Biden Administration on the nuclear deal and during President Obama’s term. Mohammad Javad Zarif, the former foreign minister who worked with then Secretary of State John Kerry on the original negotiations, campaigned for Pezeshkian and will, possibly, stay on as a senior adviser. Pezeshkian is expected to appoint Zarif’s former deputy, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, as his foreign minister.

Vaez also said that, with Pezeshkian’s new foreign policy team, the West now has a viable partner in Tehran who understands international diplomacy. Tehran is closely watching the US presidential election. If Trump wins in November, it could mean the return of his Administration’s “maximum pressure campaign” of sanctions aimed at getting Iran to agree to a stronger nuclear deal that also addresses its regional terrorism and missile programme.

A second term for Biden or another Democratic president could lead to a renewed effort for a more limited deal to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Analysts say Iran’s nuclear programme is now too advanced to return to the 12-month “breakout time” set by the 2015 deal.

Meanwhile, Iran is not expected to make major concessions until they know who the next US president will be, and Biden is also unlikely to make any concessions before November. The two sides may resume their de-escalation talks, possibly even during the UN General Assembly in New York this September, if they can hold the meeting discreetly with the presidential election only weeks away.

Nasr said that Pezeshkian’s election, notwithstanding Trump or Biden after January, gave the West a chance to see if a serious diplomatic process to contain the nuclear issue and reduce tensions was possible.

(The author of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com)