Lok Sabha polls: BJP-led NDA to emerge single largest bloc but may fall short of majority, predicts Zee 24 Taas survey

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to emerge as a single largest alliance but it might fall short to gain an absolute majority or reach half-way mark which is 272 out of 543 seats. BJP-NDA is likely to win 264 seats out of 543, according to Zee 24 Taas poll survey. 

BJP is expected to perform comparatively better in north Indian states including Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Haryana. In Uttar Pradesh, BJP is likely to fetch 50 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats. Earlier in 2014 elections, it won 73 seats.

In Maharashtra and Gujarat also, the BJP-led alliance will emerge on the top with 28, 30 and 24 seats respectively. which sends 80 members to the Lower House of the Parliament, may fetch the BJP 50 MPs. 

The BJP has formed an alliance with JD(U) and LJP in Bihar, it is contesting Maharashtra in partnership with Shiv Sena. (Photo: PTI)

The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) may get close to 165 out of 543 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Congress is expected to score better in Chhattisgarh, Punjab, and Karnataka. In 2018 assembly elections, Congress had de-throne BJP in Chhattisgarh after party's 3 consecutive terms. (Photo: PTI)

Uttar Pradesh: Total 80 seats

BJP: 50, Congress: 5, SP-BSP: 25

Maharashtra: Total 48 seats

BJP + Shiv Sena + Others: 30 (BJP – 16, Shiv Sena – 14) 

Congress + NCP + Others: 17 (NCP – 10, Congress – 7, Others – 1) 

Bihar: Total 40 seats

NDA: 28, Congress:10, Others: 2

Karnataka: Total 28 seats

BJP: 8, Congress: 20

Gujarat: Total 26 seats

BJP: 24, Congress: 2

Jharkhand: Total 14 seats

BJP: 7, Congress: 7

Punjab: Total 13 seats

BJP: 1, Congress: 10, Others: 2

Chhattisgarh: Total 11 seats

BJP: 4 Congress: 7 

Haryana: Total 10 seats

BJP: 6, Congress: 3, Others: 1

Jammu and Kashmir: Total 6 seats

BJP: 3, Congress: 0, National Conference: 2 and PDP: 1

(Photo: PTI)

Following air strikes in Balakot, Pakistan to target terror training camp, BJP is planning to highlight the nationalism agenda as one of its poll plank in 2019 Lok Sabha elections. PM Modi after the Pulwama attack, where India lost its 40 CRPF personnel after a suicide-terrorist attacked Indian para-military convoy, had said that perpetrators of terror won't be spared. Few days after the attack, India targeted the biggest JeM training camp in Balakot, Pakistan, where many terrorists, their trainers were eliminated.

While the opposition is asking for air strikes proof, PM Modi has turned this too in an opportunity to attack his critics by saying those who are seeking evidence of air strikes are doubting their armed forces. (Photo: PTI)

With government advertisements featuring the tag line "Namumkin ab mumkin hai" (Impossible is possible now), the BJP may also launch another campaign slogan of "Modi hai to mumkin hai" (With Modi, it is possible). BJP is once again keeping its hope on PM Modi as he is going to be its face to pave way for the party in 2019 Lok Sabha polls too. 

Zee News had tied up with VMR to analyse BJP’s percentage of votes in Assembly Elections last year and mapped it with Lok Sabha numbers from the past to see how the numbers could tilt.

Analysing the state polls data, ZEE-VMR Analysis predicted that BJP could end up with 212 seats, 70 fewer than their tally in 2014 while the Congress would increase to 96, 52 more than 2014. The NDA ought to end up with 293, while the UPA could get 233 and others non-NDA, non-UPA parties could end up with 17. Of course, all analyses come with riders and we will only know the truth when the results are counted in 2019.