Eknath Shinde rebellion: How many MLAs BJP needs to form government? Maharashtra crisis explained in numbers

Eknath Shinde's open rebellion has jeopardised the Shiv Sena, Congress, NCP's MVP government. Earlier it was reported that the Shiv Sena leader had the support of over 20 MLAs. Had Eknath Shinde tried to topple the government with just 20 MLAs, he would have been susceptible to the anti-defection law, leading to his disqualification from the Maharashtra Assembly. However, his numbers are gradually approaching the two-third cut off, which -- if achieved -- will help him and his loyalists circumvent the law. On Wednesday morning, Eknath Shinde and his team of MLAs reached BJP-ruled Assam. He said 40 MLAs have accompanied him to Guwahati. He claimed 10 MLAs will join the rebels in the near future. 

"Here 40 MLAs are with me. Additional 10 MLAs will join me soon. I do not want to criticise any one. We are keen on continuing the Sena founded by late Balasaheb Thackeray," he claimed. 

If true, this doesn't augur well for Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray.

The Shiv Sena has 56 MLAs in the Maharashtra Assembly. Eknath Shinde needs the support of 37 Sena MLAs to prevent the anti-defection law from taking effect.

The Maharashtra Assembly is 288-strong. A party or a coalition needs 145 seats to form a government in the state. The MVA has 169 MLAs, including NCP's 53 and Congress's 44 and independents. 

So Eknath Shinde needs just 25 MLAs to topple the Sena government. 

How many MLAs BJP needs to form government in Maharashtra?

The National Democratic Alliance currently has 113 seats in the Maharashtra Assembly. The BJP's number is 106. The alliance needs the support of 32 MLAs to form a government. However, if the number of Shiv Sena MLAs supporting BJP is less than 38, they can be disqualified from the Assembly. If the anti-defection law kicks in, the rebel Shiv Sena MLAs can topple the government but won't be able to help BJP. Then the MVA will run a minority government till elections to these seats take place. In all the scenarios, both the sides will have to prove their numbers on the floor of the house by way of the trust vote.

What's Eknath Shinde's demands from Uddhav Thackeray

Eknath Shinde and the block of rebel Sena leaders are upset with the alleged dilution of the party's stand on matters related to Hindutva. They are also upset with Sena allying with ideologically opposite Congress and NCP. Shinde has demanded that Sena partners with its traditional ally BJP as both the parties have similar ideological leanings.