Myanmar strike: Will publicity land India in a soup?

Although security establishment here agrees that the Indian Army's manoeuvres inside Myanmar to flush out insurgents were a result of the quick and decisive nature of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's style of functioning, the diplomatic community is surprised at the wide publicity given to the operation.

They say, at least four times in the past, starting from Operation Golden Bird in 1995, the Indian Army has smoked out militants in Myanmar and Bhutan – with the consent and active participation of these governments. All these operations where kept under wraps and discussed only in whispers in military and diplomatic circles.

While the Army has still not confirmed whether they had crossed the international border, minister of state for information & broadcasting, Colonel (retd) Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore, gave the credit to the PM.
"PM Modi had ordered the hot pursuit," he said.

He even went a bit overboard when he said "Western disturbances will also be equally dealt with." He further added: "Our PM ordered the hot pursuit, in which two camps were completely annihilated. While the army carried out the strike, helicopters were on stand-by." Rathore was clearly trying to to capitalise on the army operation to add to its 'strong image'.

Sources, however, say, that though the killing of 18 soldiers by insurgents in Manipur's Chande district was the trigger, a plan to hit them was laid in April, coinciding the coming together of nine militant groups in the North-East.

When intelligence agencies reported the formation of the United National Liberation Front of West South East Asia (UNLFWSEA), a grouping of nine militant groups, including the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) – Khaplang, and the ULFA faction led by Paresh Baruah, they had also assessed that a big strike was on cards to announce the arrival.

The move also coincided the abrogation of a 14-year old ceasefire by the NSCN – K group. Some 300 insurgent groups are active in north-eastern states and they escape into neighbouring nations.

Therefore, they added that when top security officers briefed the Prime Minister on June 4 about the Manipur incident, he immediately summoned Army chief General Dalbir Singh Suhag to find out if his forces can strike. The meeting had also discussed an all-out air operation, which was dismissed.

Foreign secretary S Jaishankar, who was scheduled to brief the media on the PM's Bangladesh visit, cancelled all engagements in order to brief and seek the approval of the Myanmar government. Sources said while an approval was taken from Yangon, for the sake of secrecy, the actual timing was not shared.

Another source said the Jaishankar had had already undertaken a secret visit to Myanmar before the militant strike to tie up things with the government there. The PM's meeting was followed by Home Minister Rajnath Singh heading a meeting with Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, the Army Chief and IB and R&AW chiefs.

On Friday, when last-minute preparations were afoot for the Prime Minister's visit to Bangladesh, the Army Chief and the NSA landed in Manipur to coordinate operations. While the PM was kept informed even during his engagements in Bangladesh, he was briefed in detail on the night of Sunday, before the operation was launched in the wee hours of Tuesday.

Finally, on the intervening night of Monday and Tuesday, Special Forces, led by an officer from Manipur, were air-dropped inside Myanmar, closer to the camps of the militants, and the strike started at 3 am.

The prime minister has asked the NSA to visit Yangon to take further stock of the situation and to thank the government for cooperation. He has also asked his ministerial colleague Jitendra Singh to visit Manipur to recommend measures taken domestically. He will interact with members of the civil society, political parties and security officials, the sources said.

The last such operation was in January 2006, though at a smaller scale when the Indian Army flushed out militants from the NSCN – K group from Myanmar. This was supposedly done by supplying some military equipment to the Myanmar Army by India.

Earlier, the Royal Bhutan Army conducted an operation on Bhutanese soil between December 2003 and January 2004 to eliminate militants based in South Bhutan. But insiders say it was actually the Indian Army, which had deployed 12 battalions along the Bhutan border.

About 30 militant camps, including those of the ULFA, NDFB and KLO, were targeted in the intelligence-based operation. The earliest operation, code-named Operation Golden Bird, was conducted by 57th Mountain Division inside Myanmar, along the Mizoram border in 1995.

India's counter-insurgency doctrine gives Army such permissions. But only after taking political clearance from the Prime Minister's Office and the Ministry of External Affairs.

"It (the Myanmar operation) indicates that the Indian Army is now capable of taking bold actions, if required. But it depends on the circumstances," said a senior official, dismissing reports that a similar operation will be launched against Pakistan.