We’ve just begun walking on the revolutionary road

Revolutions raise dirt, they seldom settle it. Nor is there a fixed pattern to revolutions; people simply want a change from a dictatorial present to a free future.

But in the intervening confusion, opportunists take over, pushing aside the charged up protagonists who had ushered in the change.

Revolutions also raise excessive expectations. In the heady days before the overthrow of a dictator, crowds delude themselves into believing that they are heralding a new dawn; that their revolution is qualitatively different from all the previous revolutions of the world. But disappointment takes over inevitably.

The realisation that the governing classes are alike in all ages and under most circumstances comes as a slow dénouement. Corruption and governance deficit carry on as before, but in a new garb.

In the Bolshevik revolution, Soviet people were promised a new way of life; the like of which the world had never seen before. The communists were undoubtedly a novelty, but for seven decades people stifled in misery. Iranians had their own brand of revolution; but do people live a life of joy?

Still, the Egyptian revolution is different. For one, this is not their first time. Its people rose in Cairo against Napoleon’s army in 1798. They fought the monarchy in 1881 and 1882, staged an insurrection against the British in 1919 and 1952, rebelled against Sadat in 1977 and against Mubarak in 1986, when even the police deserted the government.

Therefore it is not surprising that the Egyptian revolution should have been successful. But this was merely a first round which left everyone from protesters to the Muslim brotherhood and the army satisfied. A new set of protests are bound to follow when the Army contrives not to loosen its grip. So the generals now fighting like vultures over the wreckage of Mubarak’s regime must take care.

In the list of issues that made people erupt, unemployment, low wages, widespread poverty and corruption were definitely central. But a deeper malaise concerned the lack of a direction; of the absence of a higher purpose that could be the national loadstar for the people.

For the last two centuries, to take a recent time span in a very old country, every period offered something special. Muhammed Ali, the founder of modern Egypt, wanted to build the Army and revive the country, Khedive Ismail attempted to model Egypt after Europe. Later in the 30s and 40s, the Wafd Party aimed for a constitutional democracy, and Nasser had aspired for Arab nationalism. All these were lofty projects which inspired people. The last 30 years were dull in comparison. There was an inspirational void; heightened by political failure.

The question therefore is whether Egypt’s new rulers would aim for political Islam or Arab liberalism? Both possibilities exist in the current distinctly fluid situation. In either case the reverberations would be felt in the wider Arab world.

But the big question is whether the Egyptian army shares the aspirations of its people? Perhaps not. Observers fear it may find powerful, behind the scenes support from USA for its desire to continue controlling the levers of power directly or indirectly.

For instance, the then secretary of state Condoleezza Rice said in Cairo in 2005: “For 60 years, my country … pursued stability at the expense of democracy in this region … and we achieved neither.”

The events in Egypt may not affect us in India, but there are some parallels. Both ancient civilisations suffer from widespread poverty, high inflation and endemic corruption. In both a large percentage of the population is below 30. Fortunately, and unlike Egypt, we do not have a dictator or a control freak army.

But it is in the Middle East that repressive regimes have been put on notice. The combination of internet, global media, restless youth and economic liberal order has a homogenising effect. What happens in one part of the Arab world could inspire people in other parts.

After Tunisia and Egypt, it may very well be Morocco or Algeria that changes constitutional direction. Bah-rain and Yemen are in ferment already, elsewhere in the Gulf the local populations may have been in a political slumber due to generous state largesse and the fear of its authority. But people may yet rouse themselves to action and surprise the world. After all the ides of March are merely a few weeks away.

The author is a former ambassador, writer and columnist