Angela Merkel faces German electoral stress test

German chancellor Angela Merkel began an electoral stress test on Sunday, with the first of three state polls when she may suffer a major setback despite a nuclear policy U-turn and military opt-out in Libya.

Voters in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt get the first chance to pass judgment on Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) since they suffered a humiliating defeat in Hamburg last month.

Their verdict, due after 6pm (1700 GMT) on Sunday, is followed next weekend by two more elections including in Baden-Wuerttemberg, a conservative stronghold which the CDU risks losing for the first time in over 60 years as support for the anti-nuclear Greens climbs due to the Japanese crisis.

Provincial elections matter in decentralised Germany, where electoral success or failure in the states can influence the  fate of federal leaders, and Merkel is exposed.

In the past week she has taken two major policy decisions which should, on the face of it, prove popular with voters.

First she suspended her unpopular nuclear policy and ordered the closure of seven ageing reactors, responding to the risk of a meltdown at Japan's Fukushima plant.

Then Merkel declared German forces would take no direct part in military strikes on Libya. That should have pleased German voters who are usually hostile to foreign military adventures.

But she drew criticism for breaking ranks with NATO allies, and lining up with China and Russia to abstain from the UN Security Council resolution authorising the action.

"The impression that Germany is isolated in Europe or the international community is completely wrong," said foreign minister Guido Westerwelle, saying Poland shared its views.

Merkel is struggling in the provinces. A poll published by Focus magazine on Sunday showed the Greens at 25% in Baden-Wuerttemberg, up five percentage points in the past week. That put combined support for the Greens and their natural coalition partner, the Social Democrats, at 47%.

By contrast the CDU and the liberal Free Democrats, its coalition partner in both the state and federal governments, had only 44% support in the poll by the Emnid institute.

Loss of the state, an economic powerhouse, would deliver a heavy blow to Merkel's authority. Defeat would also further weaken the coalition in the upper house of Parliament, whose makeup reflects parties' strength in the states.

Sunday's vote in Saxony-Anhalt, whose economy suffered after communist East Germany collapsed in 1990, poses other problems.

There the CDU shares power with the Social Democrats. Voters in the state, which has unemployment of 13%, appear more interested in basic issues -- if they are interested at all.

Turnout when Saxony-Anhalt last voted in 2006 was just 44%. This time the CDU and Social Democrats have scarcely criticised each other, drawing allegations of a "cosy campaign".

Apathy has raised the chances of the far-right NPD party crossing the five percent threshold to enter the state assembly.

Merkel has already called for a high turnout to keep the NPD out. On Sunday she was joined at the other end of the political spectrum by Wulf Gallert, candidate of the Left party and a former member of the east German communist party.

"We know the NPD's supporters won't hold back in voting," he told Reuters TV. "What's decisive is how many democrats turn out to keep the NPD out."

If the CDU falters, Gallert could even end up in power with the Social Democrats in a "red-red" coalition.

"My aim is to become state premier," he said.