Modi's Yunus Gambit: Countering Chinese and Pakistani Whispers in Bangladesh

Dr. Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel laureate, took the oath as the chief adviser of Bangladesh's 17-member interim government on August 8. Shortly afterward, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the first global leader to send his "best wishes" to Yunus.

I wish Professor Muhammad Yunus all the best as he takes on his new role.We hope things return to normal soon, with safety and protection for Hindus and all other minority communities.India is dedicated to collaborating with Bangladesh to achieve the common goals of peace, security, and development for both nations, Modi shared on X.

It might seem surprising that Modi would so warmly welcome someone who could be seen as an alternative to former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, with whom he has always had a strong relationship.

A few days ago, Yunus indirectly criticized India for not commenting on the Bangladeshi government’s violence against quota reform protesters.

Yunus told the media that it upsets him when India calls issues internal affairs. He said that if a brother's house is on fire, you can't just call it a personal matter, and diplomacy should have better ways to address these issues.

In an interview with NDTV, as reported by The Diplomat, Yunus said that destabilizing Bangladesh would impact surrounding areas, including Myanmar, the Northeast Indian states (the Seven Sisters: Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, and Tripura), and West Bengal.

Despite these comments, which some saw as "passive-aggressive" (expressing negative feelings indirectly rather than openly), Modi's gesture of welcoming Yunus seems to be the best approach, benefiting not only his Bharatiya Janata Party but also India as a whole.

It's well known that India has lost several close allies in neighboring countries in recent years. With Hasina's removal, India might also find it difficult to maintain its influence in Bangladesh, a country that critics say it has "taken for granted."

India has faced similar situations in the Maldives and Nepal, where anti-India feelings have increased, resulting in leaders who lean more towards China.

Bangladesh moving away from India is particularly concerning because it plays a crucial role in protecting India's eastern security (referring to the safety of India's eastern borders) and maintaining important connections with Southeast Asia (including countries like Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore).If Bangladesh's new leadership aligns with parties that favor closer relations with China, the United States, and Pakistan, it could create significant challenges for India, which may not be fully prepared to address these issues.

India is re-evaluating how it maintains influence in Bangladesh. It aims to assert its presence while avoiding actions that could be seen as overstepping, which has previously led to bitterness among Bangladeshis.

Sending "best wishes" to Yunus could be a positive first step in putting India on the right track for now.

Yunus is highly respected and admired worldwide, especially in Western countries, and is currently very popular in Bangladesh.He was selected as the interim leader by the quota movement coordinators and has also gained unanimous support from Bangladesh’s other major political parties, including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami.

The entire range of Bangladesh’s media is supporting Yunus to help "restore stability in the country."

However, there's a problem. It is well-known that India does not want the BNP or Jamaat to gain power in Bangladesh. This is because these parties have been historically against India, have supported rebel groups unfriendly to India, and prefer closer ties with China and Pakistan, which are strategic rivals of India.Their rise could disrupt the ongoing cooperation on trade, security, and regional connections that India has developed with the secular Awami League government under Hasina.

If these parties gain influence, it could threaten India's broader strategic interests in regional stability and security, especially in its northeastern states. This might lead to increased tensions and a shift away from the pro-India policies that have defined Bangladesh’s recent government.

Since Hasina's fall, the actions of the BNP and Jamaat have already shown their potential impact domestically. Activists and leaders from these parties have sought revenge against political opponents and have been involved in burning, vandalizing, and looting the homes and religious sites of Hindus and other minority groups.

The current coverage of the Bangladesh issue by Indian media shows a common belief in India that if the BNP or Jamaat come to power, Bangladesh might become a radical, fundamentalist state, which could lead to more terrorism.

Both the BNP and Jamaat have demanded that the interim government hold the next general election within three months. In contrast, Yunus wants the interim government to stay in power for at least three years.This disagreement could cause a major conflict between the interim government and the BNP-Jamaat soon.

If the general elections are held within three months, the BNP-Jamaat is likely to win most of the seats and form the government because there are no strong alternatives to challenge them.Bangladeshi citizens are not yet ready to choose beyond the Awami League or the BNP.

If the Yunus-led interim government focuses first on restoring law and order and then on reforming what some consider a fascist system (an authoritarian system that limits freedoms), making necessary constitutional changes instead of rushing to hold elections to bring back democracy, it could give student protesters and other new forces the chance to unite and create a new political party.

This could offer a real alternative to both the BNP and Jamaat, if not right away, then definitely in the next few years. The only way to stop the BNP-Jamaat from coming to power is to keep Yunus in his position as the chief adviser of the interim government for as long as needed.With his vast political experience and backing from strong foreign policy strategists, Modi is surely aware of this. It wouldn't be surprising if Modi becomes even more supportive of Yunus and his interim government soon.