Terror’s new stronghold? Jammu’s escalating violence signals tactical shift in militant strategy

It was a violent period in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). June 9 to June 12 saw militants launching four attacks in the Jammu region, under the Union Territory—three of them occurring within 24 hours. A fifth took place in Bandipora, in the Kashmir region, on June 17.

The series of attacks started in the Reasi district on June 9, when terrorists fired at a bus carrying Hindu pilgrims to the Vaishno Devi shrine. The driver lost control, and the vehicle swerved off the road and fell into a ditch. Nine people died and 33 were injured. The Reasi attack around 6:15 pm came less than an hour before Prime Minister Narendra Modi was sworn in for his third consecutive term in New Delhi.

Three more attacks followed in quick succession on June 11-12—one of them in a village in Kathua, near the Indo-Pak border. In the gunfight that followed, a CRPF officer was martyred and two militants were killed. Two separate attacks occurred at checkpoints in Gandoh and Chattergala, in Doda district, injuring seven security personnel. According to The Diplomat, the attacks in Jammu, particularly the one in Reasi, have raised serious concerns within India’s security establishment.

After Article 370, giving special status to J&K was revoked in August 2019, the Modi government intensified its crackdown on militants and separatist activities in Kashmir Valley. Intensified counter-insurgency operations in Kashmir forced militants to relocate their activities to the Jammu region to avoid the heightened crackdown. The Diplomat says Jammu, which had been largely free of militancy for the past 15 years, began seeing militant attacks from 2021 onwards.

The first signs of militants shifting to Jammu appeared in February 2021, when J&K police seized 15 sticky bombs—otherwise called magnetic IEDs—in Samba district near the international border. On June 27 of that year, low-flying drones dropped IEDs on the Jammu Air Force station, marking the first time that militants had used this tactic in India.

Several attacks followed over the years. Official figures show 29 terrorist-related incidents happened in the Jammu region since early 2021. Civilian casualties are also increasing. In the entire year 2023, there 12 civilians were killed. But, in the first six months of that year alone, the figure was already 17.

A June 2023 report in The Indian Express noted that, while Kashmir experienced “many more” terrorist incidents and civilian casualties, India’s security officials noted that the attacks in the Jammu region were “high-impact incidents causing the most damage”. The attacks in Jammu were also worrying since they could ignite communal riots.

In contrast to the Muslim-dominated Kashmir Valley (96.4%), Jammu has a more diverse population. Although Hindus make up 62.5% of the overall population in the region, the ratio of Hindus to Muslims differs from district to district. A terrorist attack aimed at civilians could trigger Hindu-Muslim tensions and violence. In fact, militants carrying out attacks in the Jammu region do aim to provoke communal tensions very often.

On August 14, 1993, terrorists attacked a civilian bus in Kishtwar. They identified the Hindu passengers and shot 17 of them dead. The Kishtwar attack was the first of several massacres of Hindus in Jammu and led to Hindu-Muslim clashes. The situation was so tense that the authorities had to deploy troops and enforce a curfew to calm tensions.

In 1998, 26 Hindus were beheaded in the villages of Prankote and Dakikote, which were then in Udhampur district and are now part of the Reasi district.

Terrorists have also attacked Hindu temples in the Jammu region. Suicide-bombers targeted the Raghunath Temple in Jammu city twice in 2002—once in February, and again in November. More than 26 devouts were killed and many others were injured in these attacks.

In May 2022, a bus returning from the Vaishno Devi shrine caught fire near Katra, in Reasi district, killing four Hindu pilgrims and injuring over two dozen. At first, the incident was thought to be an accident. However, investigators later discovered that militants had placed a sticky bomb on the bus’s fuel tank.

The latest attack on a bus full of passengers in Reasi rings alarm bells for several reasons:

First, it shows that the terrorists are expanding their operations in the Jammu region. Most attacks in the Jammu region after 2021 occurred in Rajouri and Poonch districts, which are near the line of control (LoC). Could the recent attacks in Reasi and Doda indicate that militancy is spreading back into Jammu’s interior districts?

Even more distressing is that a bus carrying Hindu pilgrims was targeted! This surely is a cause for alarm since it has the potential to ignite communal violence. Additionally, the attack occurred just weeks before the start of the Amarnath Yatra, an annual pilgrimage where hundreds of thousands of Hindus travel to a cave temple high in the Himalayas. The Amarnath Yatra is set to begin on June 29 and end on August 19.

Organizing logistics and security for the Amarnath Yatra is challenging even under the best of conditions due to the huge number of pilgrims, the difficult terrain, and unpredictable weather. This task has become even more difficult in recent decades as the terrorists have begun targeting pilgrims. On July 10, 2017, seven pilgrims bound for the Amarnath Yatra were killed by terrorists and 30 injured. Security officials are now worried that the terrorists may target the forthcoming Amarnath Yatra.

Importantly, J&K will soon hold Assembly elections. These elections are a crucial step towards restoring normality in the troubled region. The last Assembly elections in J&K were held in 2014, back when it was still a state. Since 2018, the region has not had an elected government because New Delhi has been delaying the assembly elections. In 2023, India’s highest court ordered the Election Commission to hold the J&K Assembly elections before September 30, 2024.

Fearing an electoral defeat, the BJP did not field candidates from Kashmir Valley in the parliamentary elections held in April-May. The candidates thought to be its “proxies” were defeated. Although the BJP performed well in the Jammu region during the General Elections, it could face a strong challenge from the INDI alliance in the forthcoming Assembly elections. In the Kashmir region, voters are likely to reject the BJP and its allies, or proxies, yet again.

More terrorist attacks in J&K in the coming months could hinder the election process. This could provide the Modi government with a convenient reason to delay the Assembly elections once again.

(The author of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also the Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com)

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